Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (AVAL)

Trade Timeline

Risk Factors

• •Low overall quality and Long-Term Score (both 20/100) increase the risk of adverse fundamental or headline moves during the 14-day hold period.
• •Dividend size ($0.0092) and forward yield (0.86%) are small, so the trade relies more on historical price behavior than on the dividend itself.
• •ATR of 2.74% indicates meaningful short-term volatility that can easily overwhelm the ~1% expected capture return in the wrong direction.
• •Historical win rates near 56–60% (e.g., 59.5% for 1d buy/14d sell, 57.6% for 14d buy/7d sell) are statistically favorable but far from certain, implying frequent small losses.
• •Medium confidence level and Tier 4 classification suggest model signals are not robust enough to size this trade aggressively.

Action Checklist

• 1.Confirm the ex-dividend date (2026-01-30) and payment details ($0.0092 per share) with your broker or the company’s official announcements closer to the date.
• 2.Size the position modestly given Tier 4 quality and an ATR of 2.74%, assuming this is a tactical capture trade, not a core holding.
• 3.Plan to enter 1 trading day before ex-dividend, ideally on an intraday pullback to improve expected return versus risk.
• 4.Set a target exit window of 7–14 days post ex-dividend (around 2026-02-06 to 2026-02-13), monitoring for recovery toward pre-ex price levels.
• 5.Use stop-loss or mental loss limits that recognize the expected capture return is ~1.0–1.5%, so downside should be capped before losses materially exceed that range.
• 6.Track price behavior versus historical patterns (win rate ~59.5%, gap fill ~92.1%, average recovery ~10.2 days) and be willing to exit early if the thesis breaks.
• 7.Reassess after the trade: if volatility, news, or price action deviate sharply from historical behavior, avoid repeating the strategy on future cycles.