Bank of Montreal (BMO)

Trade Timeline

Risk Factors

• •Historical win rate for the recommended Quick Capture (buy 7d / sell 1d) is 60.5%, meaning roughly 4 trades in 10 have been losers.
• •Average capture yield historically is 1.392% while the expected return for this setup is a bit lower at 1.08%, so current expectations are not at the high end of history.
• •Average recovery time is 39.6 days, so if the price drops more than usual around ex-date, capital may be tied up longer than planned.
• •Medium overall Confidence Level and only moderate Quality/Long-Term Scores (both 50/100) imply that company or macro news could more easily disrupt the pattern.
• •Bank stocks can react sharply to interest-rate or credit-cycle headlines, which may overwhelm usual dividend capture behavior.

Action Checklist

• 1.Confirm key dates: ex-dividend on 2026-01-30 and payment on 2026-02-26.
• 2.Target a Quick Capture entry around 7 trading days before ex-date (approximately 2026-01-23), preferably on a modest price dip.
• 3.Size the position assuming a medium-conviction trade and the possibility of a drawdown larger than the 1.20 dividend.
• 4.Set a base plan to exit 1 trading day after ex-date (around 2026-02-02, adjusted for market calendar), unless price action or news justifies extending the hold.
• 5.Monitor short-term momentum and volatility: confirm that 5-day and 20-day slopes remain positive and ATR stays near the current 1.61% range.
• 6.Have a contingency plan to hold longer (up to the historical ~40-day average recovery window) if the ex-dividend drop exceeds expectations.
• 7.For long-term investors, review overall portfolio exposure to financials and consider BMO as a secondary income holding rather than a core anchor.