Dividend Opportunities/CGABL/Jan 30, 2026

The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061 (CGABL)

Dividend Opportunity — Ex-Date Friday, January 30, 2026

4 days until ex-date

Ex-Date

Jan 30, 2026

Dividend

$0.2891

Forward Yield

6.52%

Payment Date

Feb 15, 2026

Opportunity Scores

Tier 4Low Confidence

Capture Score

Long-Term Score

Quality

Opportunity Rank

Capture Playbook

Strategy for dividend capture trade

7-Day Hold

Trade Timeline

Entry

Thu, Jan 29

Avoid initiating a dedicated dividend‑capture position around this ex‑date due to 0.0% historical win rates and no reliable pattern.

Ex-Date

Fri, Jan 30

Dividend locked in

Exit

Fri, Feb 6

If already holding, manage based on broader portfolio and credit/rate views rather than targeting a specific post–ex‑date exit window.

Expected Return

0.00%

Historical Win Rate

Risk Factors

•Historical win rates are 0.0% across all listed strategies (e.g., 7‑Day Win Rate 0.0%, 14‑Day Win Rate 0.0%), indicating no evidence of reliable capture profits.
•Gap fill rates are 0.0% for both 7‑day and 14‑day windows, suggesting the price has not shown a consistent tendency to recover the dividend drop in these timeframes.
•Recommended 7‑Day Hold strategy shows Expected Return of 0.00% and Historical Win Rate of 0.0%, giving no quantitative edge for the proposed trade.
•Momentum is flat (5‑Day and 20‑Day Momentum Slopes both 0.0000% per day), providing no positive trend to support a short‑term capture entry.
•Reported 14‑Day ATR (Volatility) of 0.00% and all zeroed performance stats indicate data sparsity or illiquidity, which raises execution risk and the chance that bid‑ask spreads or price gaps overwhelm the dividend.
•Low overall Confidence Level and a Capture Score of only 8/100 reinforce that this setup is statistically and qualitatively weak for capture trading.

Action Checklist

1.Reassess whether you need exposure to long‑dated subordinated notes like CGABL at all, given its 0/100 Quality and Long‑Term Scores.
2.If you already hold CGABL, base keep/sell decisions on your credit and interest‑rate outlook, not on the upcoming $0.2891 dividend or capture strategies.
3.Avoid opening a new position solely for dividend capture around the 2026‑01‑30 ex‑div date, as all tested strategies show 0.0% win rates and 0.00% expected return.
4.If you still consider a position, verify current liquidity (bid‑ask spreads, average volume) since ATR and historical metrics suggest possible data sparsity or illiquidity.
5.Compare CGABL’s yield and risk profile against higher‑quality income alternatives with positive quality scores and established dividend or coupon histories.
6.Size any speculative position conservatively within your portfolio, treating this as a higher‑risk income security rather than a core holding.

Scenario Analysis

Insufficient historical data for scenario analysis.

Analysis Summary

CGABL offers a headline 6.55% forward yield, but all quality metrics are at or near zero, and long‑term and capture scores are very weak. Historical data show no reliable dividend‑capture edge, with 0.0% win and gap‑fill rates, so this security is better avoided as a tactical dividend play and treated, at best, as a speculative income instrument.

Historical Capture Performance

Based on past dividend events for CGABL

Avg Capture Yield

0.00%

Avg Recovery Days

0.0

7-Day Gap Fill

14-Day Gap Fill

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.