The Clorox Company (CLX)

Trade Timeline

Risk Factors

• •Modest edge: the recommended Quick Capture setup has an expected return of only 0.47% with a 53.0% historical win rate, so the advantage is statistical but thin.
• •Volatility: 14-day ATR of 1.74% versus a 1.24 dividend means normal daily price swings can outweigh the dividend amount, increasing short-term P&L noise.
• •Quality backdrop: low Quality Score (23/100) and Tier 3 status introduce additional business and sentiment risk around the event, which can break historical patterns.
• •Longer-hold strategies show better stats: the 14d/7d strategy averages 1.43% with a 63.0% win rate, implying that very short capture may be suboptimal versus slightly longer holds.
• •Gap behavior: while the 7- and 14-day gap fill rates are high (98.0%), the average recovery time of 22.5 days may exceed the 1-day exit window, risking premature exits at a loss.

Action Checklist

• 1.Confirm current CLX fundamentals (payout ratio, recent earnings, guidance) to validate dividend sustainability beyond the raw Quality Score of 23/100.
• 2.If pursuing long-term income, cap CLX at a smaller satellite allocation and balance with higher-tier dividend names.
• 3.For capture: schedule a potential entry around 2026-01-21 (7 days before ex-date), using limit orders on intraday weakness to improve entry price versus the $108.38 reference.
• 4.Define position size assuming daily swings of ~1.6–1.8% (ATR 1.74%) so that a normal down day doesn’t exceed your risk tolerance relative to the 1.24 dividend.
• 5.Set a predefined exit plan for around 2026-01-29 (1 day after ex-date), but be ready to adjust if the price drop materially exceeds the dividend and shows no early recovery.
• 6.If price gaps sharply below expectations on or after ex-date, reassess based on broader market conditions and consider extending the holding period only if recovery patterns align with the historically high 98% gap fill rate.
• 7.Review the alternative 14d/7d strategy (avg return 1.43%, 63% win rate) if you can accept a longer holding horizon and want potentially better odds than the strict Quick Capture.
• 8.Log this trade in a tracking sheet to compare your realized outcome versus the historical expected return (0.47%) and refine future capture decisions.