Eagle Point Credit Company Inc. (ECCC)
Dividend Opportunity — Ex-Date Monday, February 9, 2026
Trade Timeline
Risk Factors
- •Historical performance is positive but modest: expected return 0.50% with a 70.4% win rate for the 7d-before / 1d-after strategy over 54 samples, so edge is statistical, not overwhelming.
- •Volatility is meaningful: 14-day ATR at 1.03% is moderate, so daily price swings can match or exceed the 0.50% expected gain, creating event risk around entry/exit.
- •Quality and long-term scores at 0/100 indicate underlying business or structure risk; a fundamental shock could invalidate historical patterns.
- •Average recovery time of 56 days implies that if the post-ex drop is larger than usual, capital may be tied up for weeks if you decide to wait for a gap fill instead of taking the planned exit.
- •Conflicting signals across strategies: while Buy 14d / Sell 7d shows a higher average return (0.78%, 74.1% win rate), shorter tactics like Buy 1d / Sell 7d and 1d / 14d have negative average returns (-0.17% and -0.31%), underscoring path dependency and timing risk.
Action Checklist
- 1.Confirm current price, ex-dividend date (2026-02-09), and dividend amount ($0.1354) are unchanged closer to the event.
- 2.Decide position size assuming this is a tactical trade only; cap exposure due to 0/100 quality and long-term scores.
- 3.Plan entry around 7 days before ex-date (target ~2026-02-02), preferably on a small pullback rather than intraday spikes.
- 4.Verify short-term momentum remains modestly positive (5-day and 20-day slopes near or above current 0.1054% and 0.0741% per day) and ATR hasn’t spiked well above the current 1.03%.
- 5.Place a clear exit plan to sell on 2026-02-10 (1 day after ex-date), using limit orders to avoid poor fills in thin or volatile conditions.
- 6.Predefine a maximum loss threshold (e.g., percentage below entry) in case price action diverges from historical patterns.
- 7.Monitor for any fundamental or company-specific news before and around the ex-dividend date that could override historical capture behavior.
- 8.Review post-trade outcome versus the expected 0.50% capture to refine future sizing and use of this pattern.
| Strategy | Avg Return | Win Rate | Historical Events |
|---|---|---|---|
Buy 14D, Sell 7D After Buy 14 days before ex-date, sell 7 days after | +0.78% | 74% | 54 ex-dates |
Quick CaptureBest Buy 7 days before ex-date, sell 1 day after | +0.50% | 70% | 54 ex-dates |
14-Day Hold Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 14 days after | -0.31% | 58% | 53 ex-dates |
Same-Day Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 1 day after | -0.02% | 56% | 54 ex-dates |
Classic Capture Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 7 days after | -0.17% | 48% | 54 ex-dates |
* Returns include dividend capture yield plus price change. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
ECCC scores very poorly on long-term quality (0/100 quality and long-term scores, Tier 4), making it unattractive as a core dividend holding despite its regular payout. However, it offers a statistically moderate dividend-capture edge: the 7-days-before / 1-day-after ex-dividend strategy has produced an average 0.50% return with a 70.4% win rate and strong 7–14 day gap-fill rates around 92.6%. This setup suits tactical traders comfortable with event-driven risk, not long-term income investors.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.