Eagle Point Credit Company Inc. (ECCF)

Trade Timeline

Risk Factors

• •Despite a strong 95.5% win rate for the 7d buy / 1d sell strategy, the underlying quality score is 0/100 and long-term score is 0/100, implying structural risk if the trade extends beyond the planned window.
• •The expected capture return is modest at 0.53% versus the $0.1667 dividend (about 0.67% of price), so slippage, wide spreads, or fees can materially erode profitability.
• •Medium overall confidence and a Tier 3 classification mean that historical patterns may not persist, especially in stressed credit or rate environments.
• •Average recovery time is 25.7 days, so if the trade goes against you and you hold for a rebound, capital may be tied up for roughly a month.
• •Although ATR is relatively low at 0.46%, adverse news or market-wide risk-off moves can cause larger-than-expected drawdowns around the ex-date.

Action Checklist

• 1.Confirm current price, ex-dividend date (2026-02-09), and dividend amount ($0.1667) are unchanged before entering.
• 2.Size the position conservatively given the 0/100 quality and long-term scores; treat this as a trade, not an investment.
• 3.Plan entry roughly 7 days before ex-dividend, monitoring for alignment with the recent positive 5-day (0.0639%/day) and 20-day (0.0294%/day) momentum slopes.
• 4.Place limit orders to control slippage, as the expected capture return is only about 0.53%.
• 5.Set a clear exit rule to sell 1 day after ex-date, regardless of minor price noise, unless there is extreme market dislocation.
• 6.Define a maximum drawdown or stop level consistent with the 0.46% ATR and your risk tolerance.
• 7.Avoid converting this into a long-term hold; if the capture thesis fails, decide in advance whether to accept a loss or hold up to the ~25.7-day average recovery window.
• 8.Review transaction costs and taxes to ensure the net capture after costs remains attractive.