Eagle Point Income Company Inc. (EICA)

Trade Timeline

Risk Factors

• •Overall Confidence Level is LOW and Quality Score is 0/100, meaning model inputs and historical analogs may not generalize well.
• •Average Recovery Days of 28.7 days suggests that if the price drops around the event, capital can be tied up for about a month before typical recovery.
• •The recommended quick capture (Buy 7d / Sell 1d) has only a modest Expected Return of 0.26% despite a 70.0% historical win rate, so payoff is small versus potential downside.
• •Historical win rates and gap fill rates (e.g., 94.0% 7- and 14-day gap fill) are based on a sample size of 50, which is decent but still vulnerable to regime changes.
• •ATR of 0.63% indicates moderate short-term volatility; a single adverse move can easily overwhelm the small expected edge.

Action Checklist

• 1.Confirm current price, dividend amount ($0.1042), and ex-dividend date (2026-02-09) have not changed.
• 2.If pursuing capture, favor the Buy 14d / Sell 7d strategy over holding through the ex-date, given the 0.43% Avg Return and 76.0% Win Rate.
• 3.Size the position conservatively, recognizing the LOW confidence level and 0/100 Quality Score.
• 4.Use limit orders near entry to avoid overpaying in a low-edge setup, and predefine a maximum loss threshold.
• 5.Monitor price action and volatility (ATR ≈ 0.63%); exit early if momentum breaks down before the planned sell date.
• 6.Avoid treating EICA as a long-term dividend holding; review and close any residual position after the capture window.