Embraer S.A. (EMBJ)

Trade Timeline

Risk Factors

• •No historical edge: 7-Day and 14-Day Win Rates are 0.0% and Gap Fill Rates are 0.0%, with Average Capture Yield at 0.000% and sample sizes of 0 across all strategies.
• •Tiny dividend vs. price: a $0.26 dividend on a $73.46 stock (~0.35% one-time yield) offers limited upside for a capture trade relative to typical daily volatility in equities.
• •Weak capture metrics: Capture Score is only 15/100 and Opportunity Rank is 40/100, indicating poor historical suitability for this style of trade.
• •No observable momentum: 5-day and 20-day momentum slopes are 0.0000% per day, so there is no positive trend to support a pre- or post–ex-dividend price drift.
• •Data quality/coverage concerns: 14-day ATR is reported as 0.00% and all strategy results show 0.00% returns with 0 sample size, suggesting either insufficient history or non-representative data, increasing uncertainty.
• •Low model confidence: the global Confidence Level is LOW, so strategy guidance (including the 7-Day Hold recommendation with 0.00% expected return and 0.0% win rate) is not statistically reliable.

Action Checklist

• 1.Confirm the official ex-dividend (2026-05-13) and payment (2026-05-28) dates with your broker or the company’s investor relations.
• 2.Review full fundamentals (earnings stability, payout ratio, debt levels, cash flow trends) from an external source to validate or refute the low 35/100 Quality and Long-Term Scores.
• 3.Assess whether a 1.42% forward yield at $73.46 aligns with your income needs versus higher-yield, higher-quality alternatives.
• 4.If considering a capture trade, re-check near-term price action, liquidity, and real volatility (ATR) close to the ex-date rather than relying on the current 0.00% momentum/ATR readings.
• 5.Size any position conservatively, treating EMBJ as speculative given the LOW Confidence Level and weak capture and quality metrics.
• 6.Set clear exit criteria (price level or time stop ~7 days post ex-date) before entering, and be prepared to abort the trade if the stock fails to hold around pre–ex-dividend prices.
• 7.Periodically re-evaluate after earnings and any dividend announcements to see if quality and long-term scores improve before committing capital for income.