Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. (ITUB)
Dividend Opportunity — Ex-Date Tuesday, May 5, 2026
5 days until ex-date
Ex-Date
May 5, 2026
Dividend
$0.0033
Forward Yield
0.15%
Payment Date
Jun 8, 2026
Opportunity Scores
Tier 2Medium Confidence
Capture Score
70Long-Term Score
50Quality
50Opportunity Rank
79Capture Playbook
Strategy for dividend capture trade
Trade Timeline
Entry
Mon, May 4
Target entry near the close 1 trading day before the 2026-05-05 ex-dividend date, aligning with the recommended Classic Capture setup.
Ex-Date
Tue, May 5
Dividend locked in
Exit
Tue, May 12
Plan to exit 7 trading days after the ex-date, or earlier if price recovery plus dividend approaches the modeled ~2.96% expected return.
Expected Return
+2.96%
Historical Win Rate
62%
Risk Factors
- •Dividend is tiny (0.0033 per share, 0.15% forward yield), so modeled 2.96% expected return is almost entirely dependent on favorable price behavior, not income.
- •Medium-quality profile: Quality Score 50/100 and Long-Term Score 50/100 imply business and price risk that can undermine short-term capture trades.
- •Volatility is substantial with a 14-day ATR of 2.91%, meaning typical swings can dwarf the dividend amount and create mark-to-market drawdowns.
- •Historical stats are probabilistic, not guaranteed: a 61.8% win rate and 99.7% gap fill rate still leave meaningful downside risk in individual trades.
- •Average recovery time of 27.8 days is longer than the 7-day holding window, so price may not fully normalize within the trade horizon.
Action Checklist
- 1.Confirm ex-dividend date (2026-05-05) and payment details ($0.0033 per share) close to the event in case of corporate action changes.
- 2.Review broader fundamentals (earnings trend, payout behavior, macro/FX for Brazil) to ensure no recent deterioration beyond the 50/100 Quality and Long-Term Scores.
- 3.Assess current chart and intraday liquidity to verify that the recent 5-day momentum slope (0.1315% per day) remains positive going into the trade.
- 4.Plan position size assuming high volatility (14-day ATR 2.91%) so that typical price swings do not exceed your risk tolerance.
- 5.Enter the position near the close 1 trading day before ex-date, following the Classic Capture strategy backed by a 61.8% historical win rate and 2.96% expected return.
- 6.Set exit rules for approximately 7 trading days after ex-date, with flexibility to take profits earlier if gains approach or exceed the modeled capture return.
- 7.Use a predefined max-loss threshold (e.g., based on ATR or percentage drawdown) to cap downside if this instance deviates from the 99.7% historical gap-fill behavior.
- 8.Post-trade, log outcome vs. the expected 2.96% return and 7-day window to refine your own confidence in ITUB-specific capture trades.
Scenario Analysis
| Strategy | Avg Return | Win Rate | Historical Events |
|---|---|---|---|
Same-Day Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 1 day after | +2.41% | 63% | 335 ex-dates |
Classic CaptureBest Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 7 days after | +2.96% | 62% | 335 ex-dates |
Quick Capture Buy 7 days before ex-date, sell 1 day after | +3.10% | 61% | 334 ex-dates |
14-Day Hold Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 14 days after | +2.95% | 60% | 334 ex-dates |
Buy 14D, Sell 7D After Buy 14 days before ex-date, sell 7 days after | +3.02% | 58% | 334 ex-dates |
* Returns include dividend capture yield plus price change. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Analysis Summary
ITUB’s upcoming dividend is very small (0.15% yield), and with a mid-range Quality Score (50/100) it is not attractive for long-term dividend income. However, historical data show a 61.8% win rate and ~2.96% expected return for a 1-day-before / 7-day-after ex-dividend capture, making this a speculative, statistics-driven short-term trade rather than an income play.
Historical Capture Performance
Based on past dividend events for ITUB
Avg Capture Yield
1.87%
Avg Recovery Days
27.8
7-Day Gap Fill
100%
14-Day Gap Fill
100%
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.