Oxford Lane Capital Corp. (OXLC)
Dividend Opportunity — Ex-Date Tuesday, March 17, 2026
2 days until ex-date
Ex-Date
Mar 17, 2026
Dividend
$0.4000
Forward Yield
13.20%
Payment Date
Mar 31, 2026
Opportunity Scores
Tier 3Low Confidence
Capture Score
29Long-Term Score
20Quality
20Opportunity Rank
64Capture Playbook
Strategy for dividend capture trade
Only 2 days until ex-date
Trade Timeline
Entry
Mon, Mar 16
If trading regardless of the data, the least-bad pattern is to avoid tight pre–ex-date entries; historically, buying 14 days before and selling 7 days after (Avg Return -2.68%, Win Rate 32.3%) has been slightly less negative than shorter holds, but still unfavorable.
Ex-Date
Tue, Mar 17
Dividend locked in
Exit
Tue, Mar 31
Given all strategies are negative, a conservative trader would avoid holding past the ex-dividend date; the data (e.g., Buy 7d / Sell 1d Avg Return -3.25%) suggests that even short-term holds around ex-date are not compensated by the dividend.
Expected Return
-3.03%
Historical Win Rate
23%
Risk Factors
- •Consistently negative historical returns for all tested strategies: from -2.68% (Buy 14d / Sell 7d) to -3.65% (Buy 1d / Sell 7d), indicating poor capture economics.
- •Low win rates across the board: only 8.1% for Buy 1d / Sell 1d and maxing out at 32.3% (Buy 14d / Sell 7d) over a sizable 124-sample history, meaning most trades lose money net of the dividend.
- •Zero 7-day and 14-day gap fill rates (0.0%) imply that post–ex-date price drops generally are not recovered quickly, undermining recovery-based capture strategies.
- •Recommended strategy (Buy 1d before / Sell 14d after) itself shows an Expected Return of -3.03% with a low 22.6% win rate, confirming poor risk–reward even under the model’s preferred setup.
- •Momentum is flat (5-day and 20-day momentum slopes 0.0000% per day), providing no positive trend tailwind to offset ex-dividend price pressure.
- •Reported 14-day ATR of 0.00% suggests either data quality issues or illiquidity/measurement problems, both of which create execution and slippage risk for a timing-sensitive capture trade.
Action Checklist
- 1.Reassess objectives: decide whether you seek stable long-term income or speculative high yield; OXLC fits the latter, not the former.
- 2.If considering long-term, size any OXLC position modestly within a diversified portfolio and assume elevated risk to both price and dividend.
- 3.Avoid pure dividend capture trades in OXLC given negative expected returns (e.g., -3.03% for Buy 1d / Sell 14d) and low win rates across all strategies.
- 4.Monitor upcoming ex-dividend (2026-03-17) and payment date (2026-03-31) only if already holding; do not let the 0.40 dividend override the weak metrics.
- 5.Review your risk tolerance and income needs; consider reallocating to higher-quality, lower-yield names with stronger quality and long-term scores for core income.
- 6.If you still trade OXLC tactically, use strict risk limits and be prepared for price drops that are unlikely to recover quickly, as indicated by 0.0% gap fill rates.
Scenario Analysis
| Strategy | Avg Return | Win Rate | Historical Events |
|---|---|---|---|
Buy 14D, Sell 7D After Buy 14 days before ex-date, sell 7 days after | -2.68% | 32% | 124 ex-dates |
14-Day HoldBest Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 14 days after | -3.03% | 23% | 124 ex-dates |
Quick Capture Buy 7 days before ex-date, sell 1 day after | -3.25% | 19% | 124 ex-dates |
Classic Capture Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 7 days after | -3.65% | 18% | 124 ex-dates |
Same-Day Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 1 day after | -3.03% | 8% | 124 ex-dates |
* Returns include dividend capture yield plus price change. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Analysis Summary
OXLC offers a very high 13.20% forward yield but is paired with weak quality metrics (Quality Score 20/100, Tier 3) and a low Long-Term Score of 20/100, making it unsuitable as a core long-term dividend holding. Historically, all tested dividend capture strategies around its ex-date show negative average returns and poor win rates, with no meaningful price recovery after ex-dividend, so the stock does not present an attractive dividend capture opportunity.
Historical Capture Performance
Based on past dividend events for OXLC
Avg Capture Yield
0.46%
Avg Recovery Days
0.0
7-Day Gap Fill
0%
14-Day Gap Fill
0%
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.