Prospect Capital Corporation (PSEC)
Dividend Opportunity — Ex-Date Wednesday, January 28, 2026
2 days until ex-date
Ex-Date
Jan 28, 2026
Dividend
$0.0450
Forward Yield
6.23%
Payment Date
Feb 18, 2026
Opportunity Scores
Tier 3Low Confidence
Capture Score
38Long-Term Score
20Quality
20Opportunity Rank
64Capture Playbook
Strategy for dividend capture trade
Only 2 days until ex-date
Trade Timeline
Entry
Wed, Jan 21
Plan entry around 7 days before the 2026-01-28 ex-dividend date (i.e., on or about 2026-01-21), sizing small due to low confidence and thin edge.
Ex-Date
Wed, Jan 28
Dividend locked in
Exit
Thu, Jan 29
Exit 1 trading day after ex-dividend (around 2026-01-29), regardless of short-term fluctuations, as longer holds show worse historical performance.
Expected Return
+0.41%
Historical Win Rate
54%
Risk Factors
- •Historical performance edge is very small: the recommended 7d buy / 1d sell strategy shows only a 0.41% average return with a 53.6% win rate, which can easily be erased by slippage and fees.
- •Gap fill rate is 0.0% for both 7-day and 14-day windows, implying that post-ex-dividend price drops have not reliably recovered within those horizons.
- •Short-term momentum is flat (5-day and 20-day momentum slopes both 0.0000%/day), offering no trend-based tailwind to help the capture trade.
- •ATR is reported as 0.00, which is likely a data anomaly or sign of abnormal liquidity; either case raises execution risk and questions the reliability of the backtest statistics.
- •Alternative capture windows mostly show negative results: Buy 1d/Sell 1d (-0.64% avg), 1d/7d (-0.83%), and 1d/14d (-1.00%), suggesting weak structural support for dividend capture in this name.
- •Low overall Quality Score (20/100) and Long-Term Score (20/100) increase the risk that adverse company-specific news could overwhelm any small capture edge.
Action Checklist
- 1.Confirm latest price, yield, and any recent news on $PSEC to ensure no major developments since this dataset.
- 2.If pursuing capture, schedule a potential entry around 7 days before the 2026-01-28 ex-date (approximately 2026-01-21).
- 3.Define a maximum position size appropriate for a low-edge, low-confidence trade (e.g., smaller than your typical capture sizing).
- 4.Set a firm exit plan to sell 1 trading day after ex-date (around 2026-01-29), regardless of outcome, to adhere to the historically best-performing window.
- 5.Account for commissions, bid/ask spread, and potential slippage; if these exceed ~0.4% of trade value, reconsider the trade as the historical edge may be fully consumed.
- 6.Monitor intraday liquidity and spreads before entry; abort or reduce size if spreads are unusually wide or volume is thin.
- 7.Do not treat PSEC as a long-term core holding unless future improvements in quality and long-term scores are evident.
Scenario Analysis
| Strategy | Avg Return | Win Rate | Historical Events |
|---|---|---|---|
Buy 14D, Sell 7D After Buy 14 days before ex-date, sell 7 days after | +0.89% | 57% | 207 ex-dates |
Quick CaptureBest Buy 7 days before ex-date, sell 1 day after | +0.41% | 54% | 207 ex-dates |
14-Day Hold Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 14 days after | -1.00% | 46% | 207 ex-dates |
Classic Capture Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 7 days after | -0.83% | 43% | 207 ex-dates |
Same-Day Buy 1 day before ex-date, sell 1 day after | -0.64% | 36% | 207 ex-dates |
* Returns include dividend capture yield plus price change. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Analysis Summary
PSEC offers a 6.43% forward yield with a $0.045 dividend, but its very low quality (20/100) and long-term score (20/100) make it unattractive as a core income holding. The best historical capture setup is a 7-day-before/1-day-after trade with a modest 0.41% average return and 53.6% win rate, which is a thin edge and subject to data and liquidity concerns.
Historical Capture Performance
Based on past dividend events for PSEC
Avg Capture Yield
1.15%
Avg Recovery Days
0.0
7-Day Gap Fill
0%
14-Day Gap Fill
0%
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.