Capture Timing v3
Comparing 12 different entry/exit timing strategies for dividend capture trading. Testing combinations of buying 1, 7, or 14 days before ex-date, and selling 1, 7, 14 days after, or holding until breakeven.
What's Wrong With This Experiment
This experiment has methodological limitations but may still provide useful directional insights. Results should be validated with longer multi-period testing (see V4 and V5).
Single Period Only
This experiment covers only a single 3-month period (Oct 2025 - Jan 2026). Results may not be representative of long-term strategy performance.
Impact: Cannot assess strategy consistency across different market conditions.
Potential Look-Ahead Bias
Declaration date validation was not strictly enforced. Some positions may have entered before the dividend was publicly declared.
Impact: Returns may be inflated by trades that used future knowledge.
Includes Funds and ETFs
This experiment includes mutual funds and ETFs which have different dividend characteristics (year-end distributions). See V3 No Funds for a cleaner comparison.
Impact: Year-end fund distributions may skew results for certain strategies.
No Transaction Costs
Results do not include commissions, bid-ask spreads, or market impact.
Impact: Real-world returns would be lower than reported.
Quality Score Filter Applied
Stocks were filtered by a quality_score >= 50 from the legacy scoring system.
Impact: Results may not generalize to the broader dividend stock universe.
Note: These issues have been identified through post-hoc audit. Future experiments will address these problems through improved data validation, stricter look-ahead bias checks, and better methodology. This experiment (V3) will not be re-run but serves as a learning reference.
Strategy Performance Matrix
Total return by entry timing (rows) and exit timing (columns)
| Entry ↓ / Exit → | 1D After | 7D After | 14D After | Breakeven |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1D Before | +8.77% 64% WR | +2.09% 58% WR | -1.52% 56% WR | +10.36% 84% WR |
| 7D Before | +10.58% 72% WR | +19.46% 68% WR | +2.42% 57% WR | +9.54% 83% WR |
| 14D Before | +2.19% 59% WR | +2.81% 55% WR | +3.43% 56% WR | +3.98% 81% WR |
Detailed Results
| Strategy | Total Return | Win Rate | Trades | Dividends | Avg Days | Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7D → 7D Entry 7D, Exit 7D after | +19.46% | 68.1% | 98 | $1,091.01 | 18.6 | -3.5% |
7D → 1D Entry 7D, Exit 1D after | +10.58% | 72.5% | 142 | $1,194.78 | 11.9 | -3.3% |
1D → BE Entry 1D, Exit at breakeven | +10.36% | 84.0% | 100 | $1,060.17 | 18.2 | -1.4% |
7D → BE Entry 7D, Exit at breakeven | +9.54% | 82.9% | 70 | $570.92 | 26.1 | -3.3% |
1D → 1D Entry 1D, Exit 1D after | +8.77% | 64.4% | 376 | $3,430.29 | 3.2 | -1.3% |
14D → BE Entry 14D, Exit at breakeven | +3.98% | 80.8% | 52 | $778.31 | 31.8 | -3.0% |
14D → 14D Entry 14D, Exit 14D after | +3.43% | 55.6% | 40 | $284.09 | 40.0 | -3.0% |
14D → 7D Entry 14D, Exit 7D after | +2.81% | 55.2% | 60 | $671.95 | 29.8 | -3.0% |
14D → 7D Entry 14D, Exit 7D after | +2.57% | 62.1% | 58 | $1,866.88 | 30.4 | -8.2% |
7D → 14D Entry 7D, Exit 14D after | +2.42% | 56.7% | 60 | $475.85 | 29.4 | -3.5% |
14D → 1D Entry 14D, Exit 1D after | +2.19% | 58.8% | 68 | $819.21 | 21.6 | -3.0% |
1D → 7D Entry 1D, Exit 7D after | +2.09% | 57.7% | 146 | $1,175.65 | 11.3 | -4.1% |
14D → BE Entry 14D, Exit at breakeven | -0.50% | 66.7% | 42 | $1,385.35 | 43.8 | -5.1% |
14D → 1D Entry 14D, Exit 1D after | -0.66% | 47.2% | 72 | $2,177.80 | 22.7 | -9.1% |
14D → 14D Entry 14D, Exit 14D after | -1.37% | 50.0% | 40 | $675.74 | 39.6 | -6.9% |
1D → 14D Entry 1D, Exit 14D after | -1.52% | 55.8% | 92 | $915.96 | 18.9 | -4.1% |
1D → BE Entry 1D, Exit at breakeven | -8.48% | 63.2% | 38 | $1,600.92 | 48.9 | -7.9% |
7D → 1D Entry 7D, Exit 1D after | -10.43% | 48.3% | 124 | $2,748.10 | 11.7 | -6.3% |
7D → 14D Entry 7D, Exit 14D after | -11.77% | 44.4% | 54 | $1,821.16 | 30.3 | -11.8% |
7D → 7D Entry 7D, Exit 7D after | -13.15% | 56.1% | 84 | $2,410.30 | 18.9 | -8.3% |
1D → 14D Entry 1D, Exit 14D after | -14.08% | 48.8% | 82 | $2,637.07 | 19.3 | -5.2% |
1D → 7D Entry 1D, Exit 7D after | -14.41% | 46.6% | 128 | $3,662.67 | 10.6 | -4.7% |
1D → 1D Entry 1D, Exit 1D after | -16.80% | 44.9% | 336 | $6,836.65 | 2.9 | -2.9% |
7D → BE Entry 7D, Exit at breakeven | -19.42% | 50.0% | 32 | $1,974.65 | 58.0 | -18.7% |
How Stocks Were Picked (Medium Opportunities)
This experiment targets "Medium Opportunity" stocks, defined as those with a Quality Score ≥ 50. This filters out yield traps and highly speculative plays while retaining a broad universe of investable assets.
Selection Criteria
- Dividend Consistency: Generally 3+ years of reliable payments.
- Growth: Positive 5-year Dividend CAGR or growth streaks.
- Safety: Payout ratios typically under 60% and covered by Free Cash Flow.
- Value: Reasonable valuation metrics (P/E, Yield Percentile).
Exclusions
- Yield Traps: Stocks with >50% annual yield.
- Extreme Risk: Stocks with single payments >20% of share price.
- Data Gaps: Missing price history or fundamental data.
Key Insights
14-day entry consistently outperforms: All four 14D entry strategies ranked in the top 4, suggesting that buying well before the ex-date captures pre-dividend momentum without excessive risk.
Quick exits underperform: The 1D→1D strategy had the worst return (-16.8%), despite having the highest trade count (336). Rapid turnover creates more exposure to transaction timing noise.
Dividends drive returns: The winning 14D→7D strategy collected $1091.0118 in dividends, demonstrating that dividend capture can offset price volatility.
Trade Explorer
| Ticker | Entry | Price | Shares | Cost | Days | Exit | Exit $ | Div $ | Yield | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOLSY | 2026-01-02 | $7.82 | 127 | $993.14 | 0 | 2026-01-02 | $7.82 | $0.00 | 0.00% | +0.00% |
| DOMH | 2026-01-02 | $5.02 | 199 | $998.98 | 0 | 2026-01-02 | $5.02 | $0.00 | 0.00% | +0.00% |
| BOLSY | 2026-01-02 | $7.82 | 127 | $993.14 | 0 | 2026-01-02 | $7.82 | $0.00 | 0.00% | +0.00% |
| DOMH | 2026-01-02 | $5.02 | 199 | $998.98 | 0 | 2026-01-02 | $5.02 | $0.00 | 0.00% | +0.00% |
| IHPGF | 2026-01-02 | $2.75 | 363 | $998.25 | 0 | 2026-01-02 | $2.75 | $0.00 | 0.00% | +0.00% |
| DOMH | 2026-01-02 | $5.02 | 199 | $998.98 | 0 | 2026-01-02 | $5.02 | $0.00 | 0.00% | +0.00% |
| DOMH | 2026-01-02 | $5.02 | 199 | $998.98 | 0 | 2026-01-02 | $5.02 | $0.00 | 0.00% | +0.00% |
| ACIC | 2025-12-31 | $12.63 | 79 | $997.77 | 2 | 2026-01-02 | $11.38 | $59.25 | 5.94% | -3.96% |
| DENI | 2025-12-31 | $17.25 | 57 | $983.25 | 2 | 2026-01-02 | $17.25 | $57.00 | 5.80% | +5.80% |
| NLOP | 2025-12-31 | $25.79 | 38 | $980.02 | 2 | 2026-01-02 | $20.83 | $193.80 | 19.78% | +0.54% |
| NLOP | 2025-12-31 | $25.79 | 38 | $980.02 | 2 | 2026-01-02 | $20.83 | $193.80 | 19.78% | +0.54% |
| ORI | 2025-12-31 | $45.64 | 21 | $958.44 | 2 | 2026-01-02 | $43.27 | $52.50 | 5.48% | +0.28% |
| NLOP | 2025-12-31 | $25.79 | 38 | $980.02 | 2 | 2026-01-02 | $20.83 | $193.80 | 19.78% | +0.54% |
| PGR | 2025-12-31 | $227.72 | 4 | $910.88 | 2 | 2026-01-02 | $212.12 | $54.40 | 5.97% | -0.88% |
| NIPOF | 2025-12-30 | $521.53 | 1 | $521.53 | 3 | 2026-01-02 | $521.53 | $30.93 | 5.93% | +5.93% |
| NIPOF | 2025-12-30 | $521.53 | 1 | $521.53 | 3 | 2026-01-02 | $521.53 | $30.93 | 5.93% | +5.93% |
| NIPOF | 2025-12-30 | $521.53 | 1 | $521.53 | 3 | 2026-01-02 | $521.53 | $30.93 | 5.93% | +5.93% |
| NIPOF | 2025-12-30 | $521.53 | 1 | $521.53 | 3 | 2026-01-02 | $521.53 | $30.93 | 5.93% | +5.93% |
| CIG-C | 2025-12-29 | $2.60 | 384 | $998.40 | 2 | 2025-12-31 | $2.60 | $27.97 | 2.80% | +2.80% |
| PADEF | 2025-12-29 | $0.15 | 6887 | $999.99 | 2 | 2025-12-31 | $0.15 | $58.97 | 5.90% | +5.90% |
| FTEL | 2025-12-29 | $0.80 | 1250 | $1,000.00 | 2 | 2025-12-31 | $0.49 | $125.00 | 12.50% | -26.25% |
| FTEL | 2025-12-29 | $0.80 | 1250 | $1,000.00 | 4 | 2026-01-02 | $0.55 | $125.00 | 12.50% | -18.25% |
| BITS | 2025-12-29 | $77.70 | 12 | $932.40 | 2 | 2025-12-31 | $62.72 | $168.49 | 18.07% | -1.21% |
| GPMT-PA | 2025-12-29 | $20.97 | 47 | $985.59 | 2 | 2025-12-31 | $20.17 | $20.56 | 2.09% | -1.73% |
| BFAP | 2025-12-26 | $21.62 | 46 | $994.52 | 7 | 2026-01-02 | $18.50 | $158.39 | 15.93% | +1.50% |
| NVD | 2025-12-26 | $7.69 | 130 | $999.70 | 7 | 2026-01-02 | $6.98 | $109.93 | 11.00% | +1.76% |
| TWN | 2025-12-26 | $59.71 | 16 | $955.36 | 7 | 2026-01-02 | $54.55 | $99.20 | 10.38% | +1.74% |
| IICAX | 2025-12-26 | $12.79 | 78 | $997.62 | 7 | 2026-01-02 | $11.42 | $98.34 | 9.86% | -0.85% |
| UBRL | 2025-12-26 | $23.33 | 42 | $979.86 | 7 | 2026-01-02 | $21.84 | $93.08 | 9.50% | +3.11% |
| IVR | 2025-12-26 | $8.62 | 116 | $999.92 | 4 | 2025-12-30 | $8.34 | $41.76 | 4.18% | +0.93% |
| AILIN | 2025-12-26 | $74.25 | 13 | $965.25 | 7 | 2026-01-02 | $73.25 | $0.00 | 0.00% | -1.35% |
| USEA | 2025-12-26 | $2.17 | 460 | $998.20 | 7 | 2026-01-02 | $1.77 | $41.40 | 4.15% | -14.29% |
| IVR | 2025-12-26 | $8.62 | 116 | $999.92 | 7 | 2026-01-02 | $8.48 | $41.76 | 4.18% | +2.55% |
| PDX | 2025-12-26 | $21.43 | 46 | $985.78 | 7 | 2026-01-02 | $18.96 | $136.62 | 13.86% | +2.33% |
| MRVSY | 2025-12-24 | $3.98 | 251 | $998.98 | 5 | 2025-12-29 | $4.06 | $29.20 | 2.92% | +4.93% |
| CRCT | 2025-12-24 | $4.93 | 202 | $995.86 | 9 | 2026-01-02 | $4.83 | $0.00 | 0.00% | -2.03% |
| SITIY | 2025-12-24 | $35.74 | 27 | $964.98 | 9 | 2026-01-02 | $38.92 | $0.00 | 0.00% | +8.90% |
| DCOHF | 2025-12-24 | $0.79 | 1265 | $999.35 | 9 | 2026-01-02 | $0.79 | $0.00 | 0.00% | +0.00% |
| HIGJX | 2025-12-24 | $22.91 | 43 | $985.13 | 5 | 2025-12-29 | $19.26 | $153.51 | 15.58% | -0.35% |
| SITIY | 2025-12-24 | $35.74 | 27 | $964.98 | 9 | 2026-01-02 | $38.92 | $0.00 | 0.00% | +8.90% |
| DCOHF | 2025-12-24 | $0.79 | 1265 | $999.35 | 9 | 2026-01-02 | $0.79 | $0.00 | 0.00% | +0.00% |
| PBR | 2025-12-24 | $11.83 | 84 | $993.72 | 9 | 2026-01-02 | $11.92 | $29.78 | 3.00% | +3.76% |
| HRCVX | 2025-12-24 | $22.99 | 43 | $988.57 | 5 | 2025-12-29 | $19.35 | $153.42 | 15.52% | -0.31% |
| PMT | 2025-12-24 | $13.04 | 76 | $991.04 | 9 | 2026-01-02 | $12.65 | $30.40 | 3.07% | +0.08% |
| NWSGY | 2025-12-24 | $9.53 | 104 | $991.12 | 9 | 2026-01-02 | $9.72 | $99.17 | 10.01% | +12.00% |
| NWSGY | 2025-12-24 | $9.53 | 104 | $991.12 | 5 | 2025-12-29 | $9.72 | $99.17 | 10.01% | +12.00% |
| PMT | 2025-12-24 | $13.04 | 76 | $991.04 | 5 | 2025-12-29 | $12.53 | $30.40 | 3.07% | -0.84% |
| PBR-A | 2025-12-24 | $11.33 | 88 | $997.04 | 5 | 2025-12-29 | $11.04 | $27.11 | 2.72% | +0.16% |
| PBR | 2025-12-24 | $11.83 | 84 | $993.72 | 5 | 2025-12-29 | $11.59 | $29.78 | 3.00% | +0.97% |
| ELP | 2025-12-23 | $9.89 | 101 | $998.89 | 10 | 2026-01-02 | $9.27 | $44.16 | 4.42% | -1.85% |
| ELP | 2025-12-23 | $9.89 | 101 | $998.89 | 10 | 2026-01-02 | $9.27 | $44.16 | 4.42% | -1.85% |
| DOMH | 2025-12-23 | $4.32 | 231 | $997.92 | 10 | 2026-01-02 | $5.02 | $0.00 | 0.00% | +16.20% |
| DOMH | 2025-12-23 | $4.32 | 231 | $997.92 | 10 | 2026-01-02 | $5.02 | $0.00 | 0.00% | +16.20% |
| DOMH | 2025-12-23 | $4.32 | 231 | $997.92 | 10 | 2026-01-02 | $5.02 | $0.00 | 0.00% | +16.20% |
| OCGPF | 2025-12-23 | $2.57 | 389 | $999.73 | 3 | 2025-12-26 | $2.57 | $40.84 | 4.09% | +4.09% |
| NLOP | 2025-12-22 | $25.71 | 38 | $976.98 | 11 | 2026-01-02 | $20.83 | $193.80 | 19.84% | +0.86% |
| HKBNF | 2025-12-22 | $0.40 | 2493 | $999.69 | 11 | 2026-01-02 | $0.40 | $60.54 | 6.06% | +6.06% |
| HKBNF | 2025-12-22 | $0.40 | 2493 | $999.69 | 2 | 2025-12-24 | $0.40 | $60.54 | 6.06% | +6.06% |
| RWT | 2025-12-22 | $5.73 | 174 | $997.02 | 2 | 2025-12-24 | $5.55 | $31.32 | 3.14% | +0.00% |
| FPI | 2025-12-22 | $9.97 | 100 | $997.00 | 2 | 2025-12-24 | $9.84 | $20.00 | 2.01% | +0.70% |
| GSL-PB | 2025-12-22 | $27.50 | 36 | $990.00 | 2 | 2025-12-24 | $26.98 | $19.69 | 1.99% | +0.10% |
| MOHCF | 2025-12-22 | $23.00 | 43 | $989.00 | 2 | 2025-12-24 | $23.00 | $18.15 | 1.84% | +1.84% |
| PGR | 2025-12-22 | $227.36 | 4 | $909.44 | 11 | 2026-01-02 | $212.12 | $54.40 | 5.98% | -0.72% |
| DENI | 2025-12-22 | $17.05 | 58 | $988.90 | 11 | 2026-01-02 | $17.25 | $58.00 | 5.87% | +7.04% |
| GMLGX | 2025-12-22 | $37.83 | 26 | $983.58 | 2 | 2025-12-24 | $32.15 | $152.18 | 15.47% | +0.46% |
| RWT | 2025-12-22 | $5.73 | 174 | $997.02 | 11 | 2026-01-02 | $5.65 | $31.32 | 3.14% | +1.75% |
| WUGI | 2025-12-22 | $88.69 | 11 | $975.59 | 2 | 2025-12-24 | $73.12 | $181.74 | 18.63% | +1.07% |
| QDTE | 2025-12-19 | $34.38 | 29 | $997.02 | 14 | 2026-01-02 | $30.75 | $105.45 | 10.58% | +0.02% |
| YBTC | 2025-12-19 | $30.66 | 32 | $981.12 | 14 | 2026-01-02 | $29.34 | $71.83 | 7.32% | +3.02% |
| XDTE | 2025-12-19 | $42.99 | 23 | $988.77 | 14 | 2026-01-02 | $39.77 | $78.97 | 7.99% | +0.50% |
| XDTE | 2025-12-19 | $42.99 | 23 | $988.77 | 14 | 2026-01-02 | $39.77 | $78.97 | 7.99% | +0.50% |
| ATHM | 2025-12-19 | $23.06 | 43 | $991.58 | 14 | 2026-01-02 | $22.68 | $50.74 | 5.12% | +3.47% |
| IVREF | 2025-12-19 | $0.66 | 1515 | $999.75 | 14 | 2026-01-02 | $0.73 | $50.52 | 5.05% | +15.05% |
| NIPOF | 2025-12-19 | $521.53 | 1 | $521.53 | 14 | 2026-01-02 | $521.53 | $30.93 | 5.93% | +5.93% |
| XFLX | 2025-12-19 | $24.54 | 40 | $981.60 | 14 | 2026-01-02 | $22.40 | $87.66 | 8.93% | +0.21% |
| SYYNY | 2025-12-19 | $4.06 | 246 | $998.76 | 4 | 2025-12-23 | $3.65 | $74.79 | 7.49% | -2.61% |
| IVREF | 2025-12-19 | $0.66 | 1515 | $999.75 | 14 | 2026-01-02 | $0.73 | $50.52 | 5.05% | +15.05% |
| SYYNY | 2025-12-19 | $4.06 | 246 | $998.76 | 14 | 2026-01-02 | $3.64 | $74.79 | 7.49% | -2.86% |
| MOTG | 2025-12-19 | $45.44 | 22 | $999.68 | 14 | 2026-01-02 | $39.22 | $151.41 | 15.15% | +1.46% |
| ICSNX | 2025-12-19 | $16.54 | 60 | $992.40 | 14 | 2026-01-02 | $13.98 | $157.65 | 15.89% | +0.41% |
| SLCJY | 2025-12-19 | $2.72 | 367 | $998.24 | 4 | 2025-12-23 | $2.68 | $56.90 | 5.70% | +4.23% |
| SYYNY | 2025-12-19 | $4.06 | 246 | $998.76 | 14 | 2026-01-02 | $3.64 | $74.79 | 7.49% | -2.86% |
| NIPOF | 2025-12-19 | $521.53 | 1 | $521.53 | 14 | 2026-01-02 | $521.53 | $30.93 | 5.93% | +5.93% |
| ICSIX | 2025-12-19 | $16.56 | 60 | $993.60 | 14 | 2026-01-02 | $13.96 | $159.81 | 16.08% | +0.38% |
| PGINX | 2025-12-19 | $25.70 | 38 | $976.60 | 14 | 2026-01-02 | $21.21 | $183.27 | 18.77% | +1.30% |
| PGRNX | 2025-12-19 | $25.36 | 39 | $989.04 | 14 | 2026-01-02 | $20.87 | $188.10 | 19.02% | +1.31% |
| NIPOF | 2025-12-19 | $521.53 | 1 | $521.53 | 14 | 2026-01-02 | $521.53 | $30.93 | 5.93% | +5.93% |
| ATHM | 2025-12-19 | $23.06 | 43 | $991.58 | 14 | 2026-01-02 | $22.68 | $50.74 | 5.12% | +3.47% |
| NIPOF | 2025-12-19 | $521.53 | 1 | $521.53 | 14 | 2026-01-02 | $521.53 | $30.93 | 5.93% | +5.93% |
| XFLX | 2025-12-19 | $24.54 | 40 | $981.60 | 14 | 2026-01-02 | $22.40 | $87.66 | 8.93% | +0.21% |
| UOPIX | 2025-12-18 | $142.28 | 7 | $995.96 | 4 | 2025-12-22 | $127.71 | $135.73 | 13.63% | +3.39% |
| GMWKF | 2025-12-18 | $263.00 | 3 | $789.00 | 4 | 2025-12-22 | $255.16 | $4.01 | 0.51% | -2.47% |
| IFF | 2025-12-18 | $65.41 | 15 | $981.15 | 4 | 2025-12-22 | $66.57 | $6.00 | 0.61% | +2.38% |
| MLGF | 2025-12-18 | $21.48 | 46 | $988.08 | 4 | 2025-12-22 | $21.20 | $11.50 | 1.16% | -0.14% |
| TTBKF | 2025-12-18 | $13.15 | 76 | $999.40 | 4 | 2025-12-22 | $13.15 | $15.96 | 1.60% | +1.60% |
| IPB | 2025-12-18 | $26.58 | 37 | $983.46 | 4 | 2025-12-22 | $25.75 | $27.99 | 2.85% | -0.28% |
| LZFOX | 2025-12-18 | $8.13 | 123 | $999.99 | 4 | 2025-12-22 | $7.17 | $120.35 | 12.04% | +0.23% |
| STSGF | 2025-12-17 | $6.00 | 166 | $996.00 | 2 | 2025-12-19 | $6.00 | $4.66 | 0.47% | +0.47% |
| STSGF | 2025-12-17 | $6.00 | 166 | $996.00 | 2 | 2025-12-19 | $6.00 | $4.66 | 0.47% | +0.47% |
| STSGF | 2025-12-17 | $6.00 | 166 | $996.00 | 13 | 2025-12-30 | $6.00 | $4.66 | 0.47% | +0.47% |
Disclaimer: This is a paper-trading experiment for research purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Transaction costs were not simulated. Results may not be reproducible in live trading due to slippage, liquidity constraints, and market impact.