Eagle Point Credit Company Inc. (ECC)

Trade Timeline

Risk Factors

• •Low structural quality (Quality Score 25/100, Tier 3) increases the chance of adverse moves unrelated to the dividend event.
• •High volatility (14-day ATR 1.93% vs. a $5.80 price) means daily price swings can easily overwhelm the expected 0.38% capture return.
• •Capture profile is mixed: 7-day and 14-day win rates around 38% while gap fill rates are higher (75.6%), implying you may need to hold through volatility or longer than planned to recover.
• •Average recovery time of 36.3 days is long for a short-term capture; a quick exit may lock in losses if the usual gap fill timing fails.
• •Strategy dependence on modest positive momentum (5-day slope 0.2127%/day and 20-day slope 0.1778%/day) can be undermined quickly if market sentiment or credit conditions turn.

Action Checklist

• 1.Determine if ECC fits your risk tolerance as a speculative income idea rather than a core long-term holding, given its 25/100 quality and long-term scores.
• 2.If pursuing capture, plan a Quick Capture trade: buy about 7 days before the 2026-02-09 ex-dividend date and aim to sell 1 day after.
• 3.Size the position conservatively so that a price move in line with the 1.93% ATR does not exceed your risk limits, since this easily surpasses the expected 0.38% capture return.
• 4.Set predefined exit rules (time-based and loss-based) in case the typical recovery pattern fails, noting the 36.3-day average recovery time.
• 5.Monitor short-term momentum into the ex-date to confirm the current positive 5-day (0.2127%/day) and 20-day (0.1778%/day) slopes are intact before entering.
• 6.Avoid extending the holding period far beyond 1 day after ex-date, as historical Buy 1d / Sell 7–14d strategies show negative average returns around -1.5% to -1.6%.