Lifetime Brands, Inc. (LCUT)

Trade Timeline

Risk Factors

• •Historical capture performance is weak: the recommended Buy 7d / Sell 1d strategy has an expected return of -0.05% with only a 45.1% win rate over 91 samples, meaning losses have outweighed gains even after collecting the dividend.
• •Gap fill risk is very high: 7-day and 14-day gap fill rates are both 0.0%, implying the price typically does not recover back to the pre–ex-dividend level within two weeks.
• •Other holding windows are worse: Buy 14d / Sell 7d averages -1.30% and Buy 1d / Sell 14d averages -1.22%, all with sub-50% win rates, so extending the holding period historically increases loss risk.
• •Capture Score is only 34/100 and Confidence Level is LOW, indicating that even the system’s best-identified pattern is weak and unreliable.
• •Momentum signals do not offer a tailwind: 5-day and 20-day momentum slopes are 0.0000% per day, so there is no positive drift to help offset the typical ex-dividend price drop.
• •Volatility and recovery dynamics are unclear: 14-day ATR is reported as 0.00% and Average Recovery Days as 0.0, which is likely a data/measurement artifact; practically this means no dependable information about how fast or whether the stock recovers after ex-date.
• •The dividend amount ($0.0425) is just about 1.05% of the $4.05 price per share, yet average capture yield is only 0.477%, suggesting that much of the dividend is offset by price decline around ex-date.

Action Checklist

• 1.Reassess whether you need exposure to a low-quality (40/100) Tier 3 dividend payer for your income strategy.
• 2.Compare $LCUT’s 4.20% forward yield with higher-quality alternatives (higher quality/long-term scores) before committing capital.
• 3.If you still consider a capture trade, strictly limit position size given the LOW confidence level and negative expected return history.
• 4.Time any speculative capture entry to roughly 7 days before the 2026-01-30 ex-dividend date, if you adhere to the backtested pattern.
• 5.Set a firm plan to exit on the first trading day after the ex-date, regardless of price action, to avoid mission creep into a long-term hold.
• 6.Use limit orders around thinly traded or low-priced names like $LCUT to mitigate slippage and poor fills.
• 7.Monitor price action and liquidity closely into the ex-dividend date; if spreads or volatility widen, stand aside rather than forcing the trade.
• 8.Periodically review updated fundamentals and dividend announcements from Lifetime Brands to watch for any cut or suspension risk.