Silicon Motion Technology Corporation (SIMO)

Trade Timeline

Risk Factors

• •Overall quality and long-term scores are low (25/100 each, Tier 3), increasing the risk that adverse fundamental or news events overshadow the typical dividend pattern during the hold window.
• •ATR of 3.77 indicates fairly high short-term volatility, so price moves can easily exceed the $0.50 dividend and create a drawdown larger than the expected capture yield (historical average capture only 0.711%).
• •Win rates are only modestly above 50% (e.g., 62.5% for 1d buy / 14d sell, 56.3% for shorter holds), implying a non-trivial chance of a losing trade despite a positive expected return.
• •Average recovery time of 29.4 days means that a 14-day exit may precede full gap recovery in some cases, exposing traders to timing risk if the usual rebound is slower this cycle.
• •Medium confidence level and Capture Score of 50/100 underscore that this edge is statistical but not robust; results can deviate meaningfully from the backtest, especially in a risk-off market for semiconductors.

Action Checklist

• 1.Confirm precise ex-dividend (2026-05-07) and payment (2026-05-21) dates with your broker or a primary data source before trading.
• 2.Size the position assuming this is a satellite or tactical capture trade, not a core long-term dividend holding, given low quality and long-term scores (25/100, Tier 3).
• 3.Plan entry for the close 1 trading day before ex-date, aligning with the recommended 1d pre-ex strategy.
• 4.Set a maximum loss or drawdown threshold that accounts for ATR of 3.77 (e.g., tolerance for several dollars of adverse move beyond the $0.50 dividend).
• 5.Monitor price behavior around ex-date and in the first week post ex-date, watching for unusually large downside moves that might justify reducing or exiting early.
• 6.Target exit around 14 days after ex-date per the best historical strategy (1.89% average return, 62.5% win rate), but be prepared to take profits earlier if the price recovers quickly and exceeds your target return.
• 7.Review broader semiconductor sector sentiment and any company-specific news before and during the trade, as negative catalysts can overwhelm usual dividend capture patterns.
• 8.After the trade, log actual entry, exit, and outcome versus the expected 1.89% capture to refine your own rules for future SIMO opportunities.