Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM)

Trade Timeline

Risk Factors

• •Historical 1-day capture is negative (Buy 1d / Sell 1d avg return -0.05% with only 40.5% win rate), so relying on an immediate post–ex-date bounce is risky.
• •Despite a solid 14-day win rate of 61.0% for Buy 1d / Sell 14d, there is still a ~39% chance of loss on this specific capture window.
• •ATR of 2.34% indicates meaningful short-term volatility; short capture trades are exposed to market and stock-specific swings that can overwhelm the 0.23% one-off dividend.
• •Forward yield is only 0.93%, so the raw dividend collected (0.7646 on a $330.56 stock) is small relative to typical daily price moves; the trade relies heavily on historical price behavior, not just the cash dividend.
• •Quality Score and Long-Term Score are both 60/100 with medium confidence, leaving room for fundamental or sentiment shifts during the 14-day hold.
• •Sample sizes in the scenario analysis are moderate (around 41–42), which limits statistical robustness of the backtested edge.

Action Checklist

• 1.Confirm the ex-dividend date of 2026-03-17 and the dividend amount of $0.7646 before entering.
• 2.Plan entry for the trading day just before ex-date, watching for intraday dips relative to recent price action.
• 3.Size the position modestly given the medium confidence level and 2.34% ATR-driven volatility.
• 4.Use the 14-day hold window after ex-date as the base plan, aligned with the Buy 1d / Sell 14d strategy (historical avg return 1.41%, 61.0% win rate).
• 5.Monitor price action versus the expected recovery path (average recovery 17.9 days; 14-day gap fill rate 97.6%) and be ready to tighten stops if recovery deviates materially.
• 6.Set a profit-taking target near the modeled 1.4–1.6% range, and consider exiting early if achieved before day 14.
• 7.If price remains weak by day 14, reassess whether to extend the hold towards the ~18-day average recovery or cut the trade to limit downside.
• 8.For long-term investors, evaluate $TSM within a total-return or growth sleeve rather than a high-income bucket, given the 0.93% forward yield and mid-level Quality/Long-Term Scores (60/100).