Capture Timing v3 (No Funds)
Funds ExcludedTesting the same 12 timing strategies as v3, but excluding mutual funds and ETFs to isolate performance on operating companies. This tests whether fund NAV adjustments were dragging down capture returns.
What's Wrong With This Experiment
This experiment has methodological limitations but may still provide useful directional insights. Results should be validated with longer multi-period testing (see V4 and V5).
Single Period Only
This experiment covers only a single 3-month period (Oct 2025 - Jan 2026). Results may not be representative of long-term strategy performance.
Impact: Cannot assess strategy consistency across different market conditions.
Potential Look-Ahead Bias
Declaration date validation was not strictly enforced. Some positions may have entered before the dividend was publicly declared.
Impact: Returns may be inflated by trades that used future knowledge.
No Transaction Costs
Results do not include commissions, bid-ask spreads, or market impact.
Impact: Real-world returns would be lower than reported.
Quality Score Filter Applied
Stocks were filtered by a quality_score >= 50 from the legacy scoring system.
Impact: Results may not generalize to the broader dividend stock universe.
Funds and ETFs Excluded
This is an improvement over V3 - mutual funds and ETFs are excluded, providing cleaner data for operating company dividend capture.
Impact: Results are more representative of traditional stock dividend capture.
Note: These issues have been identified through post-hoc audit. Future experiments will address these problems through improved data validation, stricter look-ahead bias checks, and better methodology. This experiment (V3 No Funds) will not be re-run but serves as a learning reference.
Comparison: Original v3 vs No Funds
Strategy Performance Matrix
Total return by entry timing (rows) and exit timing (columns)
| Entry ↓ / Exit → | 1D After | 7D After | 14D After | Breakeven |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1D Before | +8.77% 64% WR | +2.09% 58% WR | -1.52% 56% WR | +10.36% 84% WR |
| 7D Before | +10.58% 72% WR | +19.46% 68% WR | +2.42% 57% WR | +9.54% 83% WR |
| 14D Before | +2.19% 59% WR | +2.81% 55% WR | +3.43% 56% WR | +3.98% 81% WR |
Detailed Results
| Strategy | Total Return | Win Rate | Trades | Dividends | Avg Days | Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7D → 7D Entry 7D, Exit 7D after | +19.46% | 68.1% | 98 | $1,091.01 | 18.6 | -3.5% |
7D → 1D Entry 7D, Exit 1D after | +10.58% | 72.5% | 142 | $1,194.78 | 11.9 | -3.3% |
1D → BE Entry 1D, Exit at breakeven | +10.36% | 84.0% | 100 | $1,060.17 | 18.2 | -1.4% |
7D → BE Entry 7D, Exit at breakeven | +9.54% | 82.9% | 70 | $570.92 | 26.1 | -3.3% |
1D → 1D Entry 1D, Exit 1D after | +8.77% | 64.4% | 376 | $3,430.29 | 3.2 | -1.3% |
14D → BE Entry 14D, Exit at breakeven | +3.98% | 80.8% | 52 | $778.31 | 31.8 | -3.0% |
14D → 14D Entry 14D, Exit 14D after | +3.43% | 55.6% | 40 | $284.09 | 40.0 | -3.0% |
14D → 7D Entry 14D, Exit 7D after | +2.81% | 55.2% | 60 | $671.95 | 29.8 | -3.0% |
7D → 14D Entry 7D, Exit 14D after | +2.42% | 56.7% | 60 | $475.85 | 29.4 | -3.5% |
14D → 1D Entry 14D, Exit 1D after | +2.19% | 58.8% | 68 | $819.21 | 21.6 | -3.0% |
1D → 7D Entry 1D, Exit 7D after | +2.09% | 57.7% | 146 | $1,175.65 | 11.3 | -4.1% |
1D → 14D Entry 1D, Exit 14D after | -1.52% | 55.8% | 92 | $915.96 | 18.9 | -4.1% |
How Stocks Were Picked (Medium Opportunities)
This experiment targets "Medium Opportunity" stocks, defined as those with a Quality Score ≥ 50. This filters out yield traps and highly speculative plays while retaining a broad universe of investable assets.
Selection Criteria
- Dividend Consistency: Generally 3+ years of reliable payments.
- Growth: Positive 5-year Dividend CAGR or growth streaks.
- Safety: Payout ratios typically under 60% and covered by Free Cash Flow.
- Value: Reasonable valuation metrics (P/E, Yield Percentile).
Exclusions
- Yield Traps: Stocks with >50% annual yield.
- Extreme Risk: Stocks with single payments >20% of share price.
- Data Gaps: Missing price history or fundamental data.
Key Insights
Fund exclusion improved average returns: Excluding funds/ETFs improved the average return from -9.04% to +6.18%, a 15.22pp improvement. This supports the hypothesis that fund NAV adjustments drag down capture returns.
Breakeven strategies shine: The 7D→BE strategy achieved +19.46% return with a 68.1% win rate, significantly outperforming fixed-exit strategies.
Quick exits still underperform: The 1D→1D strategy remains the worst performer at -1.52%, confirming that rapid turnover creates more exposure to timing noise.
More trades, different universe: Despite excluding ~75% of dividend-paying stocks (funds/ETFs), the experiment executed 1304 trades vs 1090 in the original, showing that operating companies have more frequent dividend opportunities.
Breakeven Strategy Risk: "Breakeven" strategies did not achieve 100% win rates because positions that failed to recover were forced closed at a loss when the experiment ended (Jan 2, 2026).
Trade Explorer
| Ticker | Entry | Price | Shares | Cost | Days | Exit | Exit $ | Div $ | Yield | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOMH | 2026-01-02 | $5.02 | 199 | $998.98 | 0 | 2026-01-02 | $5.02 | $0.00 | 0.00% | +0.00% |
| BOLSY | 2026-01-02 | $7.82 | 127 | $993.14 | 0 | 2026-01-02 | $7.82 | $0.00 | 0.00% | +0.00% |
| DOMH | 2026-01-02 | $5.02 | 199 | $998.98 | 0 | 2026-01-02 | $5.02 | $0.00 | 0.00% | +0.00% |
| DOMH | 2026-01-02 | $5.02 | 199 | $998.98 | 0 | 2026-01-02 | $5.02 | $0.00 | 0.00% | +0.00% |
| DENI | 2025-12-31 | $17.25 | 57 | $983.25 | 2 | 2026-01-02 | $17.25 | $57.00 | 5.80% | +5.80% |
| PGR | 2025-12-31 | $227.72 | 4 | $910.88 | 2 | 2026-01-02 | $212.12 | $54.40 | 5.97% | -0.88% |
| NLOP | 2025-12-31 | $25.79 | 38 | $980.02 | 2 | 2026-01-02 | $20.83 | $193.80 | 19.78% | +0.54% |
| NLOP | 2025-12-31 | $25.79 | 38 | $980.02 | 2 | 2026-01-02 | $20.83 | $193.80 | 19.78% | +0.54% |
| ORI | 2025-12-31 | $45.64 | 21 | $958.44 | 2 | 2026-01-02 | $43.27 | $52.50 | 5.48% | +0.28% |
| ACIC | 2025-12-31 | $12.63 | 79 | $997.77 | 2 | 2026-01-02 | $11.38 | $59.25 | 5.94% | -3.96% |
| NIPOF | 2025-12-30 | $521.53 | 1 | $521.53 | 3 | 2026-01-02 | $521.53 | $30.93 | 5.93% | +5.93% |
| NIPOF | 2025-12-30 | $521.53 | 1 | $521.53 | 3 | 2026-01-02 | $521.53 | $30.93 | 5.93% | +5.93% |
| FTEL | 2025-12-29 | $0.80 | 1250 | $1,000.00 | 2 | 2025-12-31 | $0.49 | $125.00 | 12.50% | -26.25% |
| FTEL | 2025-12-29 | $0.80 | 1250 | $1,000.00 | 4 | 2026-01-02 | $0.55 | $125.00 | 12.50% | -18.25% |
| GPMT-PA | 2025-12-29 | $20.97 | 47 | $985.59 | 2 | 2025-12-31 | $20.17 | $20.56 | 2.09% | -1.73% |
| CIG-C | 2025-12-29 | $2.60 | 384 | $998.40 | 2 | 2025-12-31 | $2.60 | $27.97 | 2.80% | +2.80% |
| PADEF | 2025-12-29 | $0.15 | 6887 | $999.99 | 2 | 2025-12-31 | $0.15 | $58.97 | 5.90% | +5.90% |
| IVR | 2025-12-26 | $8.62 | 116 | $999.92 | 7 | 2026-01-02 | $8.48 | $41.76 | 4.18% | +2.55% |
| AILIN | 2025-12-26 | $74.25 | 13 | $965.25 | 7 | 2026-01-02 | $73.25 | $0.00 | 0.00% | -1.35% |
| USEA | 2025-12-26 | $2.17 | 460 | $998.20 | 7 | 2026-01-02 | $1.77 | $41.40 | 4.15% | -14.29% |
| IVR | 2025-12-26 | $8.62 | 116 | $999.92 | 4 | 2025-12-30 | $8.34 | $41.76 | 4.18% | +0.93% |
| SITIY | 2025-12-24 | $35.74 | 27 | $964.98 | 9 | 2026-01-02 | $38.92 | $0.00 | 0.00% | +8.90% |
| NWSGY | 2025-12-24 | $9.53 | 104 | $991.12 | 9 | 2026-01-02 | $9.72 | $99.17 | 10.01% | +12.00% |
| PMT | 2025-12-24 | $13.04 | 76 | $991.04 | 9 | 2026-01-02 | $12.65 | $30.40 | 3.07% | +0.08% |
| PBR | 2025-12-24 | $11.83 | 84 | $993.72 | 9 | 2026-01-02 | $11.92 | $29.78 | 3.00% | +3.76% |
| PBR-A | 2025-12-24 | $11.33 | 88 | $997.04 | 5 | 2025-12-29 | $11.04 | $27.11 | 2.72% | +0.16% |
| MRVSY | 2025-12-24 | $3.98 | 251 | $998.98 | 5 | 2025-12-29 | $4.06 | $29.20 | 2.92% | +4.93% |
| PBR | 2025-12-24 | $11.83 | 84 | $993.72 | 5 | 2025-12-29 | $11.59 | $29.78 | 3.00% | +0.97% |
| PMT | 2025-12-24 | $13.04 | 76 | $991.04 | 5 | 2025-12-29 | $12.53 | $30.40 | 3.07% | -0.84% |
| NWSGY | 2025-12-24 | $9.53 | 104 | $991.12 | 5 | 2025-12-29 | $9.72 | $99.17 | 10.01% | +12.00% |
| CRCT | 2025-12-24 | $4.93 | 202 | $995.86 | 9 | 2026-01-02 | $4.83 | $0.00 | 0.00% | -2.03% |
| SITIY | 2025-12-24 | $35.74 | 27 | $964.98 | 9 | 2026-01-02 | $38.92 | $0.00 | 0.00% | +8.90% |
| DCOHF | 2025-12-24 | $0.79 | 1265 | $999.35 | 9 | 2026-01-02 | $0.79 | $0.00 | 0.00% | +0.00% |
| DCOHF | 2025-12-24 | $0.79 | 1265 | $999.35 | 9 | 2026-01-02 | $0.79 | $0.00 | 0.00% | +0.00% |
| DOMH | 2025-12-23 | $4.32 | 231 | $997.92 | 10 | 2026-01-02 | $5.02 | $0.00 | 0.00% | +16.20% |
| ELP | 2025-12-23 | $9.89 | 101 | $998.89 | 10 | 2026-01-02 | $9.27 | $44.16 | 4.42% | -1.85% |
| DOMH | 2025-12-23 | $4.32 | 231 | $997.92 | 10 | 2026-01-02 | $5.02 | $0.00 | 0.00% | +16.20% |
| ELP | 2025-12-23 | $9.89 | 101 | $998.89 | 10 | 2026-01-02 | $9.27 | $44.16 | 4.42% | -1.85% |
| DOMH | 2025-12-23 | $4.32 | 231 | $997.92 | 10 | 2026-01-02 | $5.02 | $0.00 | 0.00% | +16.20% |
| OCGPF | 2025-12-23 | $2.57 | 389 | $999.73 | 3 | 2025-12-26 | $2.57 | $40.84 | 4.09% | +4.09% |
| MOHCF | 2025-12-22 | $23.00 | 43 | $989.00 | 2 | 2025-12-24 | $23.00 | $18.15 | 1.84% | +1.84% |
| GSL-PB | 2025-12-22 | $27.50 | 36 | $990.00 | 2 | 2025-12-24 | $26.98 | $19.69 | 1.99% | +0.10% |
| FPI | 2025-12-22 | $9.97 | 100 | $997.00 | 2 | 2025-12-24 | $9.84 | $20.00 | 2.01% | +0.70% |
| HKBNF | 2025-12-22 | $0.40 | 2493 | $999.69 | 2 | 2025-12-24 | $0.40 | $60.54 | 6.06% | +6.06% |
| RWT | 2025-12-22 | $5.73 | 174 | $997.02 | 2 | 2025-12-24 | $5.55 | $31.32 | 3.14% | +0.00% |
| HKBNF | 2025-12-22 | $0.40 | 2493 | $999.69 | 11 | 2026-01-02 | $0.40 | $60.54 | 6.06% | +6.06% |
| PGR | 2025-12-22 | $227.36 | 4 | $909.44 | 11 | 2026-01-02 | $212.12 | $54.40 | 5.98% | -0.72% |
| NLOP | 2025-12-22 | $25.71 | 38 | $976.98 | 11 | 2026-01-02 | $20.83 | $193.80 | 19.84% | +0.86% |
| DENI | 2025-12-22 | $17.05 | 58 | $988.90 | 11 | 2026-01-02 | $17.25 | $58.00 | 5.87% | +7.04% |
| RWT | 2025-12-22 | $5.73 | 174 | $997.02 | 11 | 2026-01-02 | $5.65 | $31.32 | 3.14% | +1.75% |
| NIPOF | 2025-12-19 | $521.53 | 1 | $521.53 | 14 | 2026-01-02 | $521.53 | $30.93 | 5.93% | +5.93% |
| SYYNY | 2025-12-19 | $4.06 | 246 | $998.76 | 14 | 2026-01-02 | $3.64 | $74.79 | 7.49% | -2.86% |
| NIPOF | 2025-12-19 | $521.53 | 1 | $521.53 | 14 | 2026-01-02 | $521.53 | $30.93 | 5.93% | +5.93% |
| SYYNY | 2025-12-19 | $4.06 | 246 | $998.76 | 14 | 2026-01-02 | $3.64 | $74.79 | 7.49% | -2.86% |
| SYYNY | 2025-12-19 | $4.06 | 246 | $998.76 | 4 | 2025-12-23 | $3.65 | $74.79 | 7.49% | -2.61% |
| SLCJY | 2025-12-19 | $2.72 | 367 | $998.24 | 4 | 2025-12-23 | $2.68 | $56.90 | 5.70% | +4.23% |
| TTBKF | 2025-12-18 | $13.15 | 76 | $999.40 | 4 | 2025-12-22 | $13.15 | $15.96 | 1.60% | +1.60% |
| IPB | 2025-12-18 | $26.58 | 37 | $983.46 | 4 | 2025-12-22 | $25.75 | $27.99 | 2.85% | -0.28% |
| GMWKF | 2025-12-18 | $263.00 | 3 | $789.00 | 4 | 2025-12-22 | $255.16 | $4.01 | 0.51% | -2.47% |
| IFF | 2025-12-18 | $65.41 | 15 | $981.15 | 4 | 2025-12-22 | $66.57 | $6.00 | 0.61% | +2.38% |
| MLGF | 2025-12-18 | $21.48 | 46 | $988.08 | 4 | 2025-12-22 | $21.20 | $11.50 | 1.16% | -0.14% |
| STSGF | 2025-12-17 | $6.00 | 166 | $996.00 | 2 | 2025-12-19 | $6.00 | $4.66 | 0.47% | +0.47% |
| STSGF | 2025-12-17 | $6.00 | 166 | $996.00 | 13 | 2025-12-30 | $6.00 | $4.66 | 0.47% | +0.47% |
| STSGF | 2025-12-17 | $6.00 | 166 | $996.00 | 2 | 2025-12-19 | $6.00 | $4.66 | 0.47% | +0.47% |
| PBR-A | 2025-12-16 | $11.25 | 88 | $990.00 | 13 | 2025-12-29 | $11.04 | $27.11 | 2.74% | +0.87% |
| PMT | 2025-12-16 | $12.50 | 80 | $1,000.00 | 13 | 2025-12-29 | $12.53 | $32.00 | 3.20% | +3.44% |
| NWSGY | 2025-12-16 | $11.55 | 86 | $993.30 | 13 | 2025-12-29 | $9.72 | $82.01 | 8.26% | -7.59% |
| PSYTF | 2025-12-16 | $8.82 | 113 | $996.66 | 2 | 2025-12-18 | $8.76 | $10.65 | 1.07% | +0.39% |
| IFCZF | 2025-12-16 | $204.33 | 4 | $817.32 | 2 | 2025-12-18 | $206.03 | $3.86 | 0.47% | +1.30% |
| PBR | 2025-12-16 | $11.79 | 84 | $990.36 | 13 | 2025-12-29 | $11.59 | $29.78 | 3.01% | +1.31% |
| MRVSY | 2025-12-16 | $4.13 | 242 | $999.46 | 13 | 2025-12-29 | $4.06 | $28.15 | 2.82% | +1.12% |
| CHHGF | 2025-12-15 | $0.23 | 4330 | $999.80 | 2 | 2025-12-17 | $0.23 | $19.92 | 1.99% | +1.99% |
| CHHGF | 2025-12-15 | $0.23 | 4330 | $999.80 | 2 | 2025-12-17 | $0.23 | $19.92 | 1.99% | +1.99% |
| ELP | 2025-12-15 | $10.58 | 94 | $994.52 | 18 | 2026-01-02 | $9.27 | $41.09 | 4.13% | -8.25% |
| FSFG | 2025-12-12 | $32.98 | 30 | $989.40 | 4 | 2025-12-16 | $33.07 | $4.80 | 0.49% | +0.76% |
| TFINP | 2025-12-12 | $22.25 | 44 | $979.00 | 21 | 2026-01-02 | $22.25 | $19.59 | 2.00% | +2.00% |
| RWT | 2025-12-12 | $5.60 | 178 | $996.80 | 12 | 2025-12-24 | $5.55 | $32.04 | 3.21% | +2.32% |
| HKBNF | 2025-12-12 | $0.40 | 2493 | $999.69 | 12 | 2025-12-24 | $0.40 | $60.54 | 6.06% | +6.06% |
| AQNB | 2025-12-12 | $25.86 | 38 | $982.68 | 12 | 2025-12-24 | $25.53 | $20.25 | 2.06% | +0.78% |
| HL-PB | 2025-12-12 | $69.35 | 14 | $970.90 | 12 | 2025-12-24 | $75.00 | $12.25 | 1.26% | +9.41% |
| HL-PB | 2025-12-12 | $69.35 | 14 | $970.90 | 4 | 2025-12-16 | $69.97 | $12.25 | 1.26% | +2.16% |
| AQNB | 2025-12-12 | $25.86 | 38 | $982.68 | 21 | 2026-01-02 | $25.58 | $20.25 | 2.06% | +0.98% |
| TFINP | 2025-12-12 | $22.25 | 44 | $979.00 | 21 | 2026-01-02 | $22.25 | $19.59 | 2.00% | +2.00% |
| FRWDF | 2025-12-12 | $0.64 | 1567 | $999.75 | 4 | 2025-12-16 | $0.64 | $10.03 | 1.00% | +1.00% |
| STLE | 2025-12-12 | $28.80 | 34 | $979.20 | 4 | 2025-12-16 | $28.25 | $25.50 | 2.60% | +0.69% |
| AQNB | 2025-12-12 | $25.86 | 38 | $982.68 | 4 | 2025-12-16 | $25.55 | $20.25 | 2.06% | +0.86% |
| STLE | 2025-12-12 | $28.80 | 34 | $979.20 | 12 | 2025-12-24 | $28.50 | $25.50 | 2.60% | +1.56% |
| GATX | 2025-12-12 | $168.43 | 5 | $842.15 | 4 | 2025-12-16 | $169.86 | $3.05 | 0.36% | +1.21% |
| STLE | 2025-12-12 | $28.80 | 34 | $979.20 | 21 | 2026-01-02 | $28.50 | $25.50 | 2.60% | +1.56% |
| PUODY | 2025-12-12 | $287.87 | 3 | $863.61 | 4 | 2025-12-16 | $287.87 | $7.20 | 0.83% | +0.83% |
| SYYNY | 2025-12-11 | $3.80 | 263 | $999.40 | 12 | 2025-12-23 | $3.65 | $79.96 | 8.00% | +4.05% |
| DDS | 2025-12-11 | $728.23 | 1 | $728.23 | 22 | 2026-01-02 | $636.94 | $30.30 | 4.16% | -8.38% |
| DDS | 2025-12-11 | $728.23 | 1 | $728.23 | 4 | 2025-12-15 | $678.88 | $30.00 | 4.12% | -2.66% |
| DDS | 2025-12-11 | $728.23 | 1 | $728.23 | 12 | 2025-12-23 | $625.32 | $30.00 | 4.12% | -10.01% |
| DDS | 2025-12-11 | $728.23 | 1 | $728.23 | 22 | 2026-01-02 | $636.94 | $30.30 | 4.16% | -8.38% |
| MPW | 2025-12-10 | $5.51 | 181 | $997.31 | 12 | 2025-12-22 | $5.07 | $16.29 | 1.63% | -6.35% |
| ITUB | 2025-12-10 | $7.29 | 137 | $998.73 | 2 | 2025-12-12 | $7.11 | $55.65 | 5.57% | +3.10% |
| MPW | 2025-12-10 | $5.51 | 181 | $997.31 | 2 | 2025-12-12 | $5.10 | $16.29 | 1.63% | -5.81% |
| WEGZY | 2025-12-10 | $8.86 | 112 | $992.32 | 2 | 2025-12-12 | $9.24 | $7.15 | 0.72% | +5.01% |
| WEGZY | 2025-12-10 | $8.86 | 112 | $992.32 | 23 | 2026-01-02 | $8.63 | $27.17 | 2.74% | +0.14% |
Data Quality & Caveats
Data Verified
All entry/exit prices match market data. All dividend amounts verified against source records. Position sums match portfolio totals. Win rates calculated correctly.
Dividends Drive Returns
Most strategies have negative price returns but positive total returns because dividend income more than compensates. For example, 1D→1D has -25.5% price return but +34.3% dividend return = +8.8% total. This is the core dividend capture mechanism working as expected.
Outlier Trades Impact
Two trades with >30% returns significantly boosted results: GGAL (Argentine bank, +59% during late-2025 economic rally) and CMRF (low-volume REIT, +48%). Without these outliers, the best portfolio (7D→7D) would show +13.7% instead of +19.5%.
Favorable Market Period
This experiment ran during a mildly bullish period (Oct 2025 - Jan 2026). SPY returned +2.2% and QQQ returned +1.6% during this time. Results may differ significantly in bearish or highly volatile markets.
No Transaction Costs
This simulation does not include commissions, bid-ask spreads, or market impact. With 1,304 total trades across all portfolios, real-world transaction costs would reduce returns, particularly for high-turnover strategies like 1D→1D.
Compare with Original Experiment
View the original Capture Timing v3 results (including funds/ETFs) for comparison.
Disclaimer: This is a paper-trading experiment for research purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Transaction costs were not simulated. Results may not be reproducible in live trading due to slippage, liquidity constraints, and market impact.